Iran War Day 22: спор о нарративах и рисках атак на инфраструктуру
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-day-22
Краткое содержание
В разговоре обсуждаются цифры потерь, медийные нарративы и возможные сценарии атак на энергетическую и ядерную инфраструктуру Ирана. Затрагиваются темы реакции [Саудовская Аравия](https://www.google.com/maps/search/?api=1&query=Саудовская Аравия)и, уязвимости объектов и исторические параллели с конфликтами в Сирия и Украина.
Основные тезисы
- Критика «круглых» цифр потерь и медиатехнологий, используемых для обоснования войны.
- Обсуждение сценария ударов по энергетическим объектам и возможного ответного удара по нефтяным полям.
- Проводятся параллели с предыдущими конфликтами и информационными кампаниями.
- Сквозной тезис: высокие риски эскалации при атаке на критическую инфраструктуру.
Значимость
Эпизод иллюстрирует типичный для альтернативных медиа разбор военных нарративов и подчёркивает опасность ударов по инфраструктуре в регионе.
🧾 Транскрипт (формат)
Iran War Day 22
Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/iran-war-day-22
You know, if you look at a list like September 11th, you can get all 2,977 names and no more. And that's all you'd have to do. They have lists. And it was ridiculous when, like, CBS and stuff, they kept having these nice round numbers. First, it was like 3,000, 40,000, maybe 60,000. It's made up. Larry Edelson, BS. And you can see it coming. You can see the scripts, the same thing they did in Syria. They're like, oh, Assad's cracking down on protesters. Same thing they did in Ukraine when they had snipers shooting people. They're like, oh, Assad's cracking down on protesters. Same thing they did in Ukraine when they had snipers shooting people in Maidan. So this is completely astroturf. We knew it. You could see it coming from six million miles away. Everyone knew Iran was the next target. Everyone knew they'd manufacture some kind of pretext. And then when it comes and it's all the usual voices and ding, usual suspects saying it, you know it's a lie.
Yeah, no doubt. No doubt.
I am enjoying watching Anrad burn, the oil in Haifa burn, more Makava tanks that tried to go into Lebanon burn. It's just the best. I'm over here dancing. There's just nothing better.
How many tanks today, Ryan?
I lost count. I used to be like, ooh, 12. And then it got to the point where it was like, oh, another tank was just, of course. i quit counting they're just wiping them out and what's better is they're hitting the staging areas and then israel say 118 wounded no dead sure bro have you seen
this type of decimation anywhere else it's been crazy you know they report the
wounded because those end up in hospitals so it's harder to hide the ones that just get annihilated in the woods they just leave them there what'd you ask
No, no, I'm saying just have you seen any type of decimation like this? Like, I'm just shocked how badly... Well, I expect them to lose, but not to be decimated in the manner they're doing in terms of Israel with the Hezbollah.
Well, if you go back and listen to my updates, what did I say? I was like, here's what's going to happen. They're going to run out of interceptors. They're going to run off of standoff munitions. Then their aircraft are going to start getting shot down. Then when it gets to the point where even rockets can do damage because they have no defense, their radar's been taken out, you're seeing what you're seeing now. Iran can just pick at will what its target is and destroy it. And they're in that phase. They're in the second part of the find out phase. And, you know, there's nothing they can do about it. They can make threats. They'll be like, we're going to bomb your energy. Like, why haven't you already? You're not. Because then they will take out Saudi Arabia, UAE, and everything else.
Oh, yeah, for sure. Sorry, I meant on the ground. I meant the ground invasion by Israel.
Oh, well, you know, a lot of people counted Hezbollah out. And I probably would have if I didn't know people in the organization. We covered the Syrian conflict. for 11 years, and I got a lot of good rapport with those people. And there's uprisings in Syria right now, Al Qaeda fighting Al Qaeda. It's just delicious. But one of the things we knew, but we sat quiet about, was that a lot of armaments from the SAA before Jelani took over, made its way across the border to Hezbollah. Because you had this giant black market for weapons. I mean, they couldn't use them. Their officer class had been paid off, blah, blah, blah. But they were like, They don't want it. They still hate these people. And so a lot of fighters and expertise ended up in Hezbollah and Iraq. A lot of the militia, Shia militia in Iraq, fought in the Syrian war. Those people were seasoned, and they got real weapons. And then another black market that trickled its way down was out of Ukraine.
A lot of them, cornets and stuff, and some of the anti-tank personnel they have. came from there because Ukraine, in the beginning, it was an armor war and it quickly went to like tree lines and drones because of the nature of the gear they have up there. So all this surplus went south. And Hezbollah has been buying it up, buying it up. But they made the most crucial step because they had a huge fuck up last time, which is telecommunications. So they got rid of cell phones, all that, because Israel's able to find exactly where they were, listen to them. So they got rid of all that, anything high tech, because Israel runs completely, it dominates that field. So when they got rid of the phones, now they can go in the hills and disappear. And Israel can't do guerrilla fighting. Like, they can't go hill to hill and do tactics and fight. They run. They're undisciplined. You know, it's the Israeli diaper force.
They do persistent strikes and assassination well because you're just broadcasting your signal when you have a cell phone. So they adjusted. They got rid of that. And they kept what worked, got rid of what didn't work. Israel didn't adjust at all. They thought, oh, Hezbollah's out, pager attack, they're weak. Yeah. Hezbollah got bolstered by the Syrian army. The Latakian was still intact. That was 12 days. They went and took Aleppo, Hama, and al-Qaeda takes over the country. But they didn't really wipe out the Syrian army. What happened was the officer class got paid off. The sanctions had devastated their country. It's not like they lost on the battlefield. They just decided not to fight. We can't win a protracted war, and it's not worth dying. They saw the writing on the wall. So they went and joined Hezbollah and they have those weapons and they've got enough money. And it's pretty low tech what they're doing.
And they have the components for drones. That's the other thing. The second thing they learned first, get rid of your telecommunications, Israel spies and all. The second one, drones are king. They had a huge impact in the 12-day war that neither side realized how valuable drones were, how effective they were. And so they've been able to make their own. And the land bridge they used to have, they used to think we got to get ballistic missiles. We got to get more of these. And those are nice, but those are hard. Those are complicated. You got to smuggle. Drones are easy. They don't need Iran. They can make them themselves. And that's all they've been doing. Make drones go burr. They've been making them. And those low costs, like Katusha rockets and things, the same thing Hamas has, they realize without Iron Dome, those work too. And Israel can't bring its defense systems into southern Lebanon.
So once Israel goes on the offense, they're even more vulnerable. They've been getting picked apart, but they can't sit there and play defense either because then they're just eating it from drones. So they're forced to go into Lebanon and they're getting, it's like every move, they must have Russian intel or something because they know exactly where the Israelis are, how many they are, they know everything. They've got superior intelligence from a militia group. Somebody's tapping them in. Somebody's giving them intel. They don't have that level of SRI. Every staging area gets blasted. You can look at a pattern in the reports. Staging area here, staging area there, peppered with rockets, peppered with drones. You see it all day. They know their rescue. They know their timing. They know how they evac, and they sit and wait for them. They'll wait for the helicopter to come, land, pick up their injured, and then blast it on its way out.
It's perfect play. And because Israel's not sharing information and not broadcasting their losses, they're not adapting, they're not adjusting. But it's getting out. That's why you see all these Israelis fleeing to Cyprus. I feel sorry for Cyprus. But yeah, you got them all leaving. They can't just flee to southern Israel. It's not safe there either. Obviously, they found that out today. So they're going west. Even Damona got smacked, which is just so... It's so satisfying. Wait, are you saying Israel has a nuclear weapons program? I thought they said you didn't.
Do we know if they actually attacked their, like, nuclear facility? I know they attacked Damona, obviously, but I'm assuming they also more than likely probably attacked the nuclear facility. Do we know?
No, I mean, they're not trying to start a Chernobyl or anything, but you... I mean, what would be hilarious is to attack the cooling system only and let it blow up. But I don't see them hitting the nuclear reactor or anything like that, but they took out that area. And they took out power feeding to it, so the Israelis got to scramble now. to prevent that from going into a fission reaction we were talking about this
earlier ryan that if trump hits the uh the power plant um what's your prediction i was giving my predictions earlier for the audience and uh soliman but what do you think is going to happen if he actually does go through and attack their power plants in the next 48 hours
Then Iran will hit the reactor, and Iran will hit the northern oil fields and the western oil fields in Saudi Arabia, and they will obliterate everything that's left in the UAE. Those people will be broke. They will lose tens of billions of dollars, and it will be unfixable. That's why he's like, well, we're going to take Crog Island. I'm like, you could bomb the oil right now. Why are you going to go capture it, and what are you going to do, stand next to it and make some threats? If those threats were valuable, then go ahead and hit it. He's not going to. The entire planet will come down on Trump if they attack Iran's energy and get the clap back that Iran has promised. And everything Iran has promised has happened. The problem is he's retarded, so he might do it anyway.
I was saying the same exact thing, dude. I literally, because someone asked me, like, do you really think he's going to do it? And I was like, you know what? What scares me is that he actually might do it, and then that's going to be fucking doomsday. Like, I think, so you think they're going to hit all the, you think they're going to hit the Gulf? You don't think they're going to hit Israel too?
The Gulf's way more important. I mean, Israel, they're going to, look, they're going to hit everything in Israel eventually, even if they have to bomb them all year long. It's the Gulf. They're like, the Gulf, they try to negotiate with. They're like, hey, don't touch ours, we won't touch yours. Like, do you want to be a viable country when this war is over or not? Because if we blow that up, like, we can take the damage. You can't. So whatever pressure they have on Trump, the thing is, all the Gulf states... combined plus all his allies china everything don't have as much influence as
israel ryan did you see the trump statement where he gave um i'm gonna refresh my
thing is cutting in and out guys i'll be right back ryan did you see trump's
statement where he gave iran 48 hours to open the history of hermosa
Yeah, I mean, why not one hour? Like, in two days, I'm going to do this. You better listen to me. It is like, this isn't your child, okay? You don't give ultimatums like that in a war. Like, bring it. They're like, oh, we're going to open in 48 hours. Like, why don't you end the war in 48 hours? And then we'll open the strait, you know? We're winning. You don't get to negotiate with us. I dare you. Like, if you hit Iran's energy... 109%. They will hit your energy. And that lights out the entire golf. And they won't be able to finance terrorists and do all the wonderful things they like to do. It'll be over. And it's not coming back. It's not like, well, once the war ends, then the flow of oil will start again and property will go up. No, the oil will not be there. You physically will not have refineries. You won't have LNG. Some of it will have been burned. It's just sand, okay? You're not going to have these multi-billion dollar industries.
They will be gone. You cannot build them back in a day. You're going to be out for years, and you're not going to have the capital to do it. You're not going to be a state. You understand. It is completely over if you touch Iran's energy. He's so stupid. He'll do it anyway.
But that's the... I mean, I just can't see him doing it, Ryan. I know what you're saying, like, that he's retarded or whatever, but that would just be... That's, like, worth... That's probably worth using a nuclear bomb because you literally take out the whole world.
It's... I mean, the world will exist. It just won't have the standard of living it had when it had oil. But... somebody's got to get through to him, get past Mark Levine and this Jewish cabal that's in his ear and tell him, sir, don't make threats like that. Because they're not going to open the strait because it's their existence at stake. So that ain't happening. And all you're doing is like, oh, well, let's just bring everything down with us. Like, why? What do you gain? Why do you care about Iran's ballistic missiles and the fact that they can demolish Israel? That is their problem, not the U.S. 's problem. You had a good thing. You had all the Gulf states on your side. All of them. You had all that oil in LNG. You had it all marked in dollars. You didn't have to do anything. Iran was already falling apart. Their currency had collapsed. They had internal turmoil. And you morons decided, I know, let's kill the Ayatollah.
That'll make things better.
for me that was the biggest proof that israel's in charge because if america was in charge that's what you do you choke them out it take time might take a year might take a year and a half might take two years let's say but you choke them out you'd actually win the fact that they sped it up so quickly based on israel's timeline was even more evident that's how i knew that it was going to be as soon as well as because i knew it was based on Israel's campaign rather than America's timeline. They gave him a report that was declassified,
I think on March 7th was declassified, but they gave it to him about a week before he struck on February 28th. And they told him that this has a very low chance of actually affecting regime change. And he did it anyway, dude. And Tulsi Gabbard and the intel community told him they don't have nuclear weapons. They don't have the capacity to build the nuclear weapons. You destroyed and or set back their ability to build the nuclear weapons. And he still came in saying it's nuclear weapons. Like, fucking retarded, dude. Incredible. The only thing I think of here is, like, you're just owned by the Jews. It's that simple. And I do think that they have... He knew it.
He knew they didn't have the bomb. He knew. It's just something to say because you need a pretext. You can't be like, well, Israel told us we have to. You have to make something up that sounds like a threat.
And I was going to say that too. He used that as a pretext for the American population because if he told the American population, oh, we're attacking them because of our uh because their ballistic missile program or the proxies they'd be like uh well the proxies don't aren't a threat to us and the ballistic missile program the ballistic missiles don't reach the united states why the fuck we're going to war so he had to use the nuclear bomb threat to justify the war but like yeah we all know that the whole nuclear angle was bullshit kushner wickoff where they're just whacking off like not even really there to negotiate and we attacked them twice they're in the middle of a negotiation so like this
They said Saddam Hussein reconstituted his nuclear weapons program and that he was getting yellow cake and raining from Niger. And who is they? When they say, we say, well, they said this about Saddam Hussein and they said this about Niger.
It's kind of funny because they got the yellow cake uranium. That's the funny part. They're the ones that got the yellow cake uranium for their nuclear power.
Well, they're the ones that stole highly enriched uranium and all sorts of things and cried out all from the United States, made a movie about it. It's them. They killed Kennedy because of this. Everything they accuse others of doing is stuff they've done themselves.
Yeah, it's nuts, dude.
They said Assad gassed his own people. Like, I'm so sick of it because the lies aren't very good. I would understand if it was really clever, but it's not. It's, like, real simple.
I want you to talk about the Assad gassed. I know we're talking on Israel, Iran, U.S., but real quick. Can you go through the Assad gassing his own people? Because this is something that's been pushed in the mainstream Western media for a very, very long time. And no one likes to hear this. But can you quickly go over that?